Analysis and forecast of steel price change in 2023

In 2022, the global economy was in turmoil. Influenced by the epidemic, global inflation continued to increase, the US Reserve raised interest rates, the devaluation of the RMB, the Russian-Uzbekistan conflict, and the outbreak of the energy crisis led to the rise of production costs and raw material prices in foreign industries. In 2022, the demand for steel in overseas markets will be reduced due to many factors, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers will be low.

From January to November 2022, China's crude iron output was 795.06 million tons, down 0.4% year on year; The output of crude steel was 935.11 million tons, down 1.4% year on year. In order to stabilize the economy, the state has issued supportive policies for infrastructure construction. From December 15 to 16, 2022, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to effectively prevent and resolve major economic and financial risks and ensure the stable development of the real estate market. It can be seen that the government will continue to expand investment in infrastructure to promote economic recovery and stable growth. It is expected that in 2023, China's steel demand in household appliances, machinery, automobile and other industries will show a growth trend.

1. It is estimated that the demand for steel consumption in the household appliance industry will not be high in 2023. From the perspective of the downward trend of the sales volume of the home appliance industry in export in 2022, the sales volume of the home appliance industry will decline slightly in 2023.

2. It is expected that the demand for automobile steel will rise slightly in 2023. In 2022, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles will show a rapid growth trend. According to the statistics of automobile export data from January to November 2022, the overseas sales of automobiles increased by 73.1% year on year. Recently, the state has increased its support for automobiles, and it can be predicted that the demand for automobile steel will maintain an increasing trend in 2023.

3. It is expected that the demand for steel for construction machinery will continue to grow in 2023. It is expected that the export of construction machinery will continue to grow in 2023. Overall, the price of steel will fluctuate slightly in 2023, but the overall trend is upward.